German Security Policy in the 21st Century: Problems, Partners and Perspectives

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German Security Policy in the 21st Century

Problems, Partners and Perspectives

Holger Mey
Translated from the German by Andrew Denison

160 pages, bibliog., index

ISBN 978-1-57181-663-4 $135.00/£99.00 / Hb / Published (March 2004)

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Description

"Berlin, 12 January 2030 – The crisis worsens. The Chancellor reaches for the telephone. He instructs his anteroom to put through a call to Germany's most important ally in order to discuss the situation and determine a further course of action." With whom would the chancellor speak? With the American, the French, or maybe even the Russian president? Or will the Chancellor only exercise representative functions while the real responsibility and decision-making authority lies with the President of the United Regions of Europe? This volume invites policy makers and politicians to use their imagination, to look beyond current events and take a long-term view on possible developments. Such projections, the author argues, lead to interesting conclusions for strategic planning.

Holger Mey is Independent Political Advisor and Director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis, Bonn, Germany.

Subject: Peace and Conflict Studies

Area: Germany

Subject Codes

LC: UA710 .M4513 2004

BL: m04/19948 DSC

BISAC:
POL012000 POLITICAL SCIENCE/Political Freedom & Security/International Security;
POL011000 POLITICAL SCIENCE/International Relations/General

BIC:
JPS International relations;
JPSL Geopolitics

Europe in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
Scenario I: The United Regions of Europe (URE) in the Year 2030
Scenario II: A Europe of Diverse Alliances between Nation-States
Europe’s International Security Environment in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
Scenario I: A Comparatively Peaceful International Environment
Scenario II: A Threatening Security Environment

Chapter 3. Security Trends

Which Parameters Will Influence the Future Security Environment?
The Role of Military Power in International Relations
Forces and Means
The Meaning of Military Power
Military and Economic Power in International Relations
The World of States and the International System
The Law of Armed Conflict
The Strategic Implications of Juridical Norms
Permissibility (ius ad bellum)
Conduct of War (ius in bello)
The Globalization of Economics
Global Civilizing Processes
Ideals and Ideologies
Public Opinion and Mass Media
Shift of Emphasis
Mode of Action
The Instrumental Use of the Media
The Operational Use of the Media
Conclusions
Population and Environmental Problems
Developments in Military Technology
Future Forms of Conflict
Warfare in the Twenty-First Century - A Systematic Overview
Three Categories of Military Conflict
Characteristics of Future Wars
Forms of Future War and Conflict

Chapter 4. Political Actors and Critical Regions: What Lies Ahead for Germany?

Germany
U.S.A.
The West European States
Other European States
The Russian Federation
China and Asia
The Caucasus Region
North Africa

Chapter 5. Risks and Challenges for Germany

General Remarks
Risk Categories
Possible Zones of Risk for German Security: An Overview
Future Forms of War and Armed Conflict: Implications for Germany
Direct Attack and Aggression
Further Forms of Armed Conflict

Chapter 6. Summary and Sensitivity Assessments: Germany’s Strategic Surroundings in the Year 2030

Chapter 7. Conclusions: The Bundeswehr and the Future Strategic Environment

Risk Calculus
Tasks and Roles in the Alliance
Summarizing Conclusions Regarding Selected Structural
Characteristics of the Armed Forces

Appendix I: The Bundeswehr of the Future: Selected Structural Characteristics

Size and Dimension of the Armed Forces
Presence and Availability of Personnel and Material
Quality of Arms Technology
Strategic Core Capabilities and Ranges
Operational and Tactical Core Capabilities

Appendix II: Possible Risk Areas for the Security of Germany—A Tabular Overview

Risk Area East
Risk Area Northeast Europe
Risk Area Eastern Europe
Risk Area Caucasus
Risk Area Southeast Europe
Risk Area North Africa
Risk Area Middle East
Risk Area Southwest Asia
Risk Area Central Asia
Risk Area Asia

Appendix III: Essays on Selected Topics

Comments on a Broad Definition of Security
Refugees as a Way of Waging War
Strategy and the Environment
Geostrategic Effects (Environment as a Strategic Factor)
Operational Effects
Influence of Military Activities on the Environment
Security-Relevant Environmental Changes, Especially of a Military Nature
Climate Change and Its Consequences
Diminution of Biotopes, Arable Lands, and Public Goods
Freshwater Resources
Resource Fossil Fuel, Especially Petroleum
Concluding Comments
On the Nature of War
A Means of Politics
Forms and Types of War
Violence and Its Limitation
Norms
Escalation
Violence and Counterviolence

Bibliography
Index

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