Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. The Future Europe and Its Security Environment: Four Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2030
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Europe in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
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Scenario I: The United Regions of Europe (URE) in the Year 2030
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Scenario II: A Europe of Diverse Alliances between Nation-States
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Europe’s International Security Environment in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
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Scenario I: A Comparatively Peaceful International Environment
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Scenario II: A Threatening Security Environment
Chapter 3. Security Trends
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Which Parameters Will Influence the Future Security Environment?
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The Role of Military Power in International Relations
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Forces and Means
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The Meaning of Military Power
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Military and Economic Power in International Relations
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The World of States and the International System
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The Law of Armed Conflict
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The Strategic Implications of Juridical Norms
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Permissibility (ius ad bellum)
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Conduct of War (ius in bello)
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The Globalization of Economics
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Global Civilizing Processes
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Ideals and Ideologies
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Public Opinion and Mass Media
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Shift of Emphasis
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Mode of Action
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The Instrumental Use of the Media
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The Operational Use of the Media
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Conclusions
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Population and Environmental Problems
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Developments in Military Technology
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Future Forms of Conflict
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Warfare in the Twenty-First Century - A Systematic Overview
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Three Categories of Military Conflict
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Characteristics of Future Wars
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Forms of Future War and Conflict
Chapter 4. Political Actors and Critical Regions: What Lies Ahead for Germany?
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Germany
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U.S.A.
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The West European States
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Other European States
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The Russian Federation
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China and Asia
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The Caucasus Region
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North Africa
Chapter 5. Risks and Challenges for Germany
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General Remarks
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Risk Categories
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Possible Zones of Risk for German Security: An Overview
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Future Forms of War and Armed Conflict: Implications for Germany
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Direct Attack and Aggression
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Further Forms of Armed Conflict
Chapter 6. Summary and Sensitivity Assessments: Germany’s Strategic Surroundings in the Year 2030
Chapter 7. Conclusions: The Bundeswehr and the Future Strategic Environment
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Risk Calculus
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Tasks and Roles in the Alliance
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Summarizing Conclusions Regarding Selected Structural
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Characteristics of the Armed Forces
Appendix I: The Bundeswehr of the Future: Selected Structural Characteristics
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Size and Dimension of the Armed Forces
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Presence and Availability of Personnel and Material
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Quality of Arms Technology
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Strategic Core Capabilities and Ranges
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Operational and Tactical Core Capabilities
Appendix II: Possible Risk Areas for the Security of Germany—A Tabular Overview
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Risk Area East
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Risk Area Northeast Europe
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Risk Area Eastern Europe
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Risk Area Caucasus
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Risk Area Southeast Europe
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Risk Area North Africa
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Risk Area Middle East
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Risk Area Southwest Asia
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Risk Area Central Asia
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Risk Area Asia
Appendix III: Essays on Selected Topics
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Comments on a Broad Definition of Security
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Refugees as a Way of Waging War
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Strategy and the Environment
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Geostrategic Effects (Environment as a Strategic Factor)
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Operational Effects
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Influence of Military Activities on the Environment
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Security-Relevant Environmental Changes, Especially of a Military Nature
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Climate Change and Its Consequences
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Diminution of Biotopes, Arable Lands, and Public Goods
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Freshwater Resources
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Resource Fossil Fuel, Especially Petroleum
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Concluding Comments
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On the Nature of War
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A Means of Politics
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Forms and Types of War
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Violence and Its Limitation
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Norms
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Escalation
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Violence and Counterviolence
Bibliography
Index